TLT Tests Support While GLD Tops Out – Key Technical Levels
Introduction
In today’s technical assessment, we explore two prominent ETFs—iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) and SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)—and their current market setups. TLT has revisited key support levels while GLD may have peaked with a potential blow-off top. With both assets experiencing unique technical signals, this analysis is critical for traders and investors looking for clarity in the current environment.
TLT: Bearish Trend with Intermediate-Term Bullish Potential
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has dropped once again to its key support zone around the $85 region. This marks the third time in 2025 that TLT has tested this level, raising the possibility of either a triple bottom formation or a breakdown continuation.
Price Action and Structure
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TLT’s price remains well below key intermediate- and long-term moving averages, which continue to trend downward.
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The $85 level has acted as a significant floor since early 2025, with multiple failed breakdown attempts.
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A sustained bounce here would form a bullish divergence, hinting at a potential trend reversal.
Daily Momentum and Indicators
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Momentum oscillators such as RSI and MACD have remained in bearish territory since September 2024, signaling prolonged weakness.
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However, a small bounce seen in the last trading session may mark the beginning of a momentum shift.
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The Vortex Indicator, known for its trend detection capabilities, continues to show a bearish crossover, but the gap is narrowing—an early warning sign of a potential reversal.
Support and Resistance Levels
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Support: Strong support remains near $84–$85. A breakdown below this level could expose TLT to further downside toward the $80 region.
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Resistance: Immediate resistance lies at $88, followed by a more formidable barrier around $92. These levels coincide with descending moving averages.
Technical Outlook
If TLT can maintain its footing above $85 and build on its recent bounce, it could signal an intermediate-term bullish reversal. However, the presence of overhead resistance and persistent negative indicators means traders should remain cautious and wait for confirmation before entering long positions.
GLD: Blow-Off Top Signals Caution
On the other end of the spectrum, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) appears to have completed a five-wave parabolic rally, culminating in a potential blow-off top pattern. The ETF surged aggressively from April 9 to April 21, marking a steep and accelerated move reminiscent of a final fifth wave in Elliott Wave Theory.
Price and Volume Behavior
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The sharp advance during that period lacked strong consolidation, often a hallmark of unsustainable price action.
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GLD followed up with a bearish cloud-cover candlestick reversal on massive volume, a highly bearish signal that typically forms at major tops.
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This volume spike indicates distribution, as large investors may have taken profits at elevated levels.
Momentum and Reversal Signals
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Momentum indicators have started turning lower, signaling loss of upside strength.
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The MACD has shown a bearish crossover, while RSI dropped below the overbought zone with divergence—another red flag.
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This pattern aligns with the end of a parabolic move, where prices surge unsustainably and reverse sharply.
Fundamental Catalysts
The gold rally earlier this year was largely fueled by a weak U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and increasing geopolitical risks. However, with the dollar stabilizing and inflation expectations adjusting, the underlying support for gold appears to be fading.
Key Levels for GLD
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Support: Initial support lies at $183, followed by $175. A break below these could accelerate the selloff.
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Resistance: The recent high around $194 now acts as a strong ceiling.
Possible Scenarios
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Bearish Continuation: If GLD fails to hold above key support zones and momentum weakens further, it could retrace a significant portion of its rally.
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Sideways Consolidation: The ETF might enter a consolidation phase between $175 and $190 before the next big move.
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False Top?: While a blow-off top is likely, a resurgence in macro uncertainty or renewed dollar weakness could reignite the rally—though this seems less probable short-term.
Market Context and Interplay
Both TLT and GLD are interest-rate sensitive instruments, often reacting inversely to expectations around the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and U.S. dollar performance.
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TLT, representing long-term bonds, has suffered under persistent rate hike fears and sticky inflation.
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GLD benefited initially from dollar weakness but now appears overextended.
This divergence opens opportunities for relative value trades, such as long TLT and short GLD, provided technical confirmations align.
What Traders Should Watch Next
For TLT:
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Does the $85 level hold again?
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Are we seeing a clear momentum divergence on the daily chart?
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Will the Vortex Indicator flip bullish for the first time since late 2023?
For GLD:
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Can it stay above critical support levels?
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Are volume and volatility confirming a trend change?
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Will momentum indicators remain bearish or show signs of stabilizing?
Traders should also monitor:
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Upcoming U.S. CPI/PPI data
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FOMC minutes and Fed speaker statements
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Dollar Index (DXY) trends
Conclusion
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is offering a potential bullish setup if support at $85 holds. While indicators remain bearish, early signs of a momentum divergence could attract short-term buyers. On the other hand, the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) appears to have exhausted its uptrend, completing a classic blow-off top. With bearish volume patterns and momentum shifts, GLD could be vulnerable to a deeper pullback in the coming weeks.
In both cases, technical traders must stay alert for confirmation signals before making directional bets. The next few sessions will be critical in shaping the trajectory of these influential ETFs.